A Differential Analysis on Impact of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout: The Case of the Philippines

Article Details

Dr. Joy S. Rabo, michelle.ang@dlsu.edu.ph, De La Salle University
Michelle Ang, joy.rabo@dlsu.edu.ph, De La Salle University

Journal: Journal of Global Business
Volume 10 Issue 1 (Published: 2021-09-28)

Abstract

The novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) became a global health burden that severely impacted the well-being of the people and the global economy. One of the potential solutions to control its spread is through vaccination. Through its Department of Health and National Task Force against COVID-19, the Philippine government launched its vaccination program, which aims to assist in gradually returning people to their day-to-day activities and in reviving the economy. This study utilized event study methodology to determine whether cumulative average abnormal returns based on an estimation window of 105 trading days (-110 to -6) of 231 actively-traded non-holding firms in the Philippine Stock Exchange differ five trading days before and after the start of the vaccine rollout. The firms are then classified and analyzed according to their impact ranking (high, medium-high, medium, low-medium, and low) by the International Labor Organization, and one-way ANOVA was employed to compute for any statistical significance. The findings suggest a significant difference (p<=.001) between and among all impact ranking groups during the 11-day event window, emphasizing that the vaccine rollout as a catalyst occurrence brought significant differences in investor confidence in the stock market based on the firms’ risk category. Furthermore, a significant difference in cumulative abnormal returns can be attributed to two particular days: the day of vaccine rollout (p=.0887) and two days before (p=.0871). This aids management of sampled firms in developing appropriate management plans and strategies to boost their stock returns further. Future researchers are recommended to do a similar event study once a full-scale implementation of vaccine rollout is in place.

Keywords: COVID-19, COVID-19 vaccine, vaccine rollout

DOI: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b85162bcc8fedc767ff5676/t/61c028d8f7b17c446a771306/1639983323080/JGB+1511.pdf
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