Investigating the Effect of Price of Rubber Fluctuations on Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in Malaysia

Article Details

Seuk Wai Phoong, phoongsw@um.edu.my, Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris, Malaysia
Seuk Yen Phoong, , Universiti Malaya, Malaysia

Journal: DLSU Business and Economics Review
Volume 31 Issue 1 (Published: 2021-07-01)

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the stock price and nominal exchange rate in Malaysia to ascertain the significance of using rubber price as a correction mechanism. The Johansen cointegration test was employed to investigate the effects of linear combination and the relationships among the components in a multiple time series. A two-regime, intercept adjusted Markov switching vector error correction model was also used to examine the parameters concerned. Rubber price is used as a correction mechanism. Because rubber is one of Malaysia’s main exports, using rubber price as a correction mechanism may affect the country’s economy. The results of this study show that the said variables have cointegrating relations. Further, the nominal exchange rate has a negative relationship with the changes in stock price. Markov switching vector error correction model was found to be suitable for examining the data as the findings had a small variance.

Keywords: cointegration, exchange rate, Markovswitching, rubber price, stock price

DOI: https://www.dlsu.edu.ph/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/DLSUBER.2021.July_.10phoong-0728.pdf
  References:

[1] Acemoglu, D., & Scott, A. (1997)., Asymmetric business cycles: Theory and time-series evidence., Journal of Monetary Economics, 40(3),: 501-–533.

[2] Anghelache, C., Anghel, M., Căpusneanu, S., & Topor, D. I. (2019)., Econometric model for GDP correlation analysis and economic aggregates. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, 53(1),: 183-–197.;

[3] Altavilla, C., & Grauwe, P. D. (2010)., Non-linearities in the Rrelation between the exchange rate and its fundamentals. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 15(x), 1–21.

[4] Brooks, C. (2002). Introductory econometrics for finance. Cambridge University Press., Cambridge.

[5] Chaudhuri, K., & Kumar, A. (2015), A Markov switching model for Indian stock price and volume. Journal of Emerging Market Finance, 14(3),: 237-–257.

[6]Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1991). Long-run economic relations: Readings and cointegration. Oxford University Press.

[7] Falzon, J.; ., & Castillo, D. (2013)., The impact of oil prices on sectoral equity returns: Evidence from UK and US stock market data. Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, 1(x), 247-–268.

[8] Gotz, L., & Taubadel, S. V. C. (2008)., Threshold cointegration rather than threshold adjustment: Price transmission regimes on the German Apple market. 48th Annual Conference of the German Association of Agricultural Economists.: Germany.

[9] Hache, E., & Lantz, F. (2011)., Oil price Volatility: An econometric analysis of the WTI market. France: IFP Energies Nouvelles, Centre Economie et Gestion, Napoléon Bonaparte, 228-232.

[10] Hamilton, J. D. (1989)., A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica, 57,: 357-–384. http://faostat.fao.org/ - FAOSTAT data

[11] Ihle, R., & Taubadel, S. V. C. (2008)A comparison of threshold Cointegration and Markov-Switching vector error correction models in price transmission analysis. Paper presented at the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, Missouri, April 21-22, 2008.

[12] Kim, C. J. (1994)Dynamic linear models with Markov-Switching. Journal of Econometrics, 60(x),: 1–22.

[13] Kleppe,. T. S., Oglend, A. (2019)., Can limits-to-arbitrage from bounded storage improve commodity term structure modeling? Journal of Future Markets, 39(7),: 865-–889.

[14] Krolzig, H. M. (1997). Markov-switching vector Autoregression. Springer, Berlin.

Krolzig, H. M. (2001). Business cycle measurement in the presence of structural change: International evidence. International Journal of Forecasting, 17(x), 349–368.

[16] Lütkepohl, H., & Kraetzig, M. (2005)Applied time series econometrics. The Press Syndicate of the University of Cambridge, United States.

[17] Lv, X.,; Lien, D.,; & Yu, C. (2020)., Who affects who? Oil price against the stock return of oil-related companies: Evidence from the US and China. International Review of Economics & Finance, 67 (C), 85-–100.

[18] Lyons, R. K., (2001)The microstructure approach to exchange rates. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

[19] Malaysian Rubber Council (2020), Industry Overview- Malaysia`s Exports of Rubber Products, http://www.myrubbercouncil.com/industry/malaysia_export.php#:~:text=Malaysia`s%20exports%20of%20rubber%20products%20surged%2075.6%25%20to%20RM41.,of%20 rubber%20 products%20 in%202020.

[20] Malaysian Rubber Export Promotion Council.MREPC (2013)., Malaysian rubber and rubber products statistics. Official Website of Malaysian Rubber Export Promotion Council, http://www.mrepc.com/industry/industry.php

[21] Mollick, A. V.; ., & Assefa, T. A. (2013)., US stock returns and oil prices: The tale from daily data and the 2008–2009 financial crisis. Energy Economics, 36, 1-18.

[22] Morley, J., & Piger, J. (2009)., The asymmetric business cycle. Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(x),: 208-–221.

[23] Phoong, S. W., Ismail, M. T., & Sek, S. K. (2014)Linear VECM VS MS-VECM on stock market behavior. Asian Academy of Management of Accounting and Finance, 10(1),: 129-–145.

[24] Phoong, S. W., Phoong, S. Y., Moghavvemi, S., & Phoong, K. H. (2019). Multiple breakpoint tests on crude oil price. Foundations of Management, .11(x), :187-–196.

[25] Phoong, S.W.; Phoong, S.Y.; Phoong, K.H. (2020), Analysis of Structural Changes in Financial Datasets using the Breakpoint Test and the Markov Switching Model. Symmetry, 12, 401.

[26] Ready, R. C. (2018)., Oil prices and the stock market. Review of Finance, 22, 155-–176.

[27] Stock, J. H. (1994). Unit roots, structural breaks and trends. In R. F. Engle, R. F. and & D. L. McFadden, D. L. (edsEds.), Handbook of econometrics, (Vol. IV, pp. xx–xx). Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

[28] Vazquez, E., Clempner, J. B. (2020)Customer portfolio model driven by continuous-Time Markov chains: An 𝒍𝟐 Lagrangian regularization method. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, 54(2),: 23-–40

  Cited by:
     None...